KCM On Balance – March 2025

“March comes in with an adder’s head and goes out with a peacock’s tail.”

– Richard Lawson Gales

Throughout January and February 2025, economic and market conditions were influenced by a combination of political changes, continuous inflation, and shifting investor sentiment. The U.S. economy showed signs of slowing growth, with the GDP expanding by 2.3% in Q4; however, while this growth met consensus expectations, it represented a deceleration from the 3.1% growth rate seen in Q3.¹

Inflation has remained a top concern as monthly increases have resulted in a slight uptick in the year-over-year (YoY) inflation rates, with the headline CPI now at 3% YoY and the core CPI at 3.3% YoY.² Despite efforts to curb inflation, the increase kept inflationary fears at the forefront, contributing to a decline in consumer sentiment. In fact, consumer confidence dropped nearly 10%³ from January, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. This sharp decline reflects growing concerns among consumers about the economic outlook, likely fueled by ongoing inflationary pressures, uncertainty surrounding interest rates, and broader market volatility.

In response to these conditions, the Federal Reserve opted to keep short-term interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5% during its first meeting of 2025⁴. This decision reflected a cautious approach as policymakers maintained a “wait-and-see” stance, closely monitoring economic data before making any further adjustments to monetary policy. As inflation and economic growth dynamics have continued to evolve, uncertainty has lingered, influencing consumer behavior and market sentiment as the year unfolds.

_{[1] Schenker, J., “U.S. GDP Growth Slowed In Q4 2024 To 2.3% Due to Falling Inventories,” Forbes,}

_{[2] “January Inflation Rate Higher than Expected: What This Means for the Markets,” J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, February 13, 2025,}

_{[3] “Consumer Sentiment Drops as Inflation Worries Escalate,” University of Michigan News, February 21, 2025,}

_{[4] “Our Investment and Economic Outlook February 2025,” Vanguard, February 21, 2025}

Articles of Interest

Advisory services offered through KCPAG Financial Advisors LLC and insurance services offered through KCPAG Insurance Services LLC, subsidiaries of Kemper Capital Management LLC. Tax services offered through Kemper CPA Group LLP.

Symmetry Partners, LLC is an investment advisory firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, excluded, or exempt from registration requirements. Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC.

No one should assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, product, or non-investment-related content made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable. You should not assume any discussion or information contained in this email serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice. Symmetry does not provide tax or legal advice and nothing either stated or implied here should be inferred as providing such advice. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions.

Diversification seeks to improve performance by spreading your investment dollars into various asset classes to add balance to your portfolio. Using this methodology, however, does not guarantee a profit or protection from loss in a declining market. Past performance does not guarantee future results.